Uncertainty and Pivots
Lately it feels like the world isn’t a very safe place. From cartel violence in Mexico to the current war in the Middle East to a mass shooting in Austin, it can feel like there is violence everywhere. As nomads who have pre-booked travel for the next year, it forces us to ask ourselves hard questions about our risk tolerance and how we balance exploration with security.
We left Mexico a week before the cartel violence shook Puerto Vallarta. Our decision to leave Playa del Carmen early had nothing to do with safety. It was really based on boredom. We felt very safe while we were in Playa. And last year when we were in Puerto Vallarta we felt very safe. Mexico definitely has violent crime. But at the same time, it is a major tourist destination for Americans and Canadians, and one of the top expat destinations in the world. So how do you balance those two seemingly contrasting factors? Tourist destination and violent cartels? We felt like sticking to the tourist cities would reduce our risk. And while we were there, we were fine. But violence is often unpredictable.
Now, we’re faced with a hard decision about Istanbul. We originally scheduled 3 weeks in Istanbul. We’ve had a lot of discussions this week about what to do. Istanbul is one of the biggest tourist destinations in Europe. But it shares a border with Iran. Our discussions have touched two main risks. 1) What is the likelihood of a state sanctioned attack impacting Istanbul? If that happened, we could be stranded in a country where we aren’t familiar with customs, language, etc. We’ve seen the impacts to so many travelers in the Middle East this week who are trying to get out. 2) What will the sentiment be towards American tourists? Could we face anger, personal attacks, etc?
We are enrolled in STEP, the US State Department’s program and notification system to document where you are traveling in the world. We get regular alerts of the threat level of a country has changed. Right now, Turkey is listed as the same threat level as the UK, France, Germany, etc.
While our experience with travel has opened our eyes so much, we are aware that we still carry a very sheltered American perspective on the world. Sitting in the safety of suburbia in the Midwest, you don’t need to think about a personal impact to the events in the world. If we’d never left home, we wouldn’t be having these conversations. Possibility versus Probability. That’s the crossroads we are at.
In the end, we think the probability of anything happening to us in Istanbul is low. But we have shortened our stay there. We’re now only staying for 6 nights. We have booked tours for 2 of those days, and our health check appointments are scheduled for another day. We’re staying in the tourist neighborhoods and likely won’t venture out much beyond that neighborhood. We’re thankful that our Airbnb was fully refundable.
When we leave Istanbul, we’re going to add two new countries for the following two weeks. Our first stop will be Kotor, Montenegro for 9 nights and then Tirana, Albania for 5 nights. These were two countries we wanted to explore, and they still keep us in the same general region before we head to our planned time in Greece.
We think this is a good compromise. We know many people that have a much higher risk tolerance than us, and wouldn’t think twice about a planned trip to Istanbul. We know many other people who would never go. In the end, it is a personal decision and we feel comfortable with ours. What do you think? Are we being overly cautious or naive? What would you do?